Bitcoin's Impact on War, Geopolitics, and the Treasury System

In a Nutshell: Matthew Pines says trying to speculate and reason about the future evolution of geopolitics and state relations in the absence of Bitcoin is extremely difficult. “In fact, it’s probably one of the things that stresses all world leaders out and economists and hedge funds. Everyone’s trying to predict how the global system is going to evolve so trying to answer the question of how the global system’s going to evolve WITH Bitcoin imposes an additional complexity,” he said. Yet, this difficulty doesn’t stop us from trying or from gaming out different possible scenarios.

In today’s show, Matthew Pines and I discuss the current state of geopolitics among Russia, Ukraine, China, and the US, and the potential role that Bitcoin, stablecoins, central bank digital currencies, and US treasuries might play in shaping the denouement. And we zoom out as well and discuss whether widespread Bitcoin adoption can act as a deterrent to war in general and why Bitcoin might reduce certain incentives to initiate war but not all of them.

Guest: Matthew Pines, Management Consultant, Fellow – National Security, International Policy at the Bitcoin Policy Institute.

We discuss:

Why human beings initiate warfare.
What role Bitcoin might play in reducing incentives to start future wars.
Russia’s calculus on the situation in Ukraine.
The bromance between Russia and China and what that may mean for the balance of power among the world’s major powers.
The dynamics of how President Putin, President Xi, and President Biden view Bitcoin and the strategic interests around it.
Why legacy politicians in the US may view the rise of crypto currencies as a negative because it could disrupt one of their favorite tools to keep rogue countries in check (sanctions!).
The impact the massive buildup in US debt is having here at home and abroad, why Modern Monetary Theory may not be the answer, and the risks the US is facing by trying to use financial repression to solve it.
What a “disruption” in the US treasury market might look like and the impact it could have on the world’s financial system.

Featured Tweet:

Russia leaning in to #bitcoin, while preparing for wartime sanctions.

China banning bitcoin, while pushing their digital yuan.

U.S. giving mixed messages, while dangling an EO and seizing a large BTC stash.

IMF and BIS accelerating CBDC "pilots".

What's context & signal here?

— Matthew Pines (@matthew_pines) February 10, 2022